Friday, July 9, 2010

NL Cy Young Update: Jimenez has the W's, but that's it

Ubaldo Jimenez has had a fantastic season. He looked fabulous again today in shutting down St. Louis and was on a record-breaking pace until recently. But a few hiccups in late June and early July have opened the door for a slew of serious contenders.

One look at U can't hit what U can't see's numbers and the data is shocking.

15-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 113 K's. Nobody's won more than 27 games in the National League in nearly 60 years. Last season's Cy Young winner won 15 games all season.

But let me say it again. Last year's Cy Young winner won only 15 games.

In an age of Sabremetrics and stat geeks simply winning games won't do it. Adam Wainwright was a bullpen meltdown away from being a 20-game winner with a bunch of other gaudy numbers and he came up short in 2009.

For Ubaldo, a 25-win season, a no-hitter, 200 K's and an ERA in the low two's may be too much for anyone else to overcome. Hell, Jimenez could wind up winning the pitching triple crown (wins, ERA and strikeouts) but there are plenty of pitchers with numbers just as impressive or better than Jimenez in other categories not including record.

Let's round out the rest of the top-10 with just a few days left until the All-Star break.

LURKING

Josh Johnson (FLA)

After eight shutout innings Wednesday night in LA, Johnson's numbers are top-to-bottom the best in baseball. He sports a tidy 1.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 123 K's against just 28 walks. His record is 9-3. He leads all NL starters in every possible metric including WAR where he tops the list at 5.0. If I had to vote right now he would be my pick.

Adam Wainwright (STL)

A brilliant 2009 behind him, nothing has changed for Wainwright in the new decade. A 2.24 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, 123 K's and 32 BB with a 12-5 record. Not a lot of drop off there or from the rest of the candidates. He's gone at least six innings in every start but one and hasn't given up more than four earned runs in an appearance.

Roy Halladay (PHI)

Like Jimenez, a few rough starts have skewed some otherwise downright numbers for ol' Roy but the sum totals are still pretty fantastic. 2.33 ERA a 1.08 WHIP and 119 K's with only 18 free passes in as many starts. Doc is just 10-7 but has seven complete games and three shutouts (both the most in the NL). The Philly bats have been uncharacteristically quiet for long stretches in the early going and Halladay's record has suffered. His 4.3 WAR is tied for second in the league with Jimenez.

Mat Latos (SDP)

Certainly the surprise of the first-half, Latos has been downright brilliant for the Padres thus far. Latos boasts a 2.45 ERA with just a 0.97 WHIP. He's struck out 99 and walked just 28. He's 10-4 for the NL-West leading Daddies. His hits allowed per nine innings pitched is the second lowest behind Jimenez.

FOUR MORE TO WATCH FOR

Yovani Gallardo (MIL)

Flithy stuff, but just landed on the DL. Should be back after the break. 2.58 ERA and 128 K's. High WHIP (1.26) because of so many walks (48). 8-4 for a Milwaukee team that is really struggling and may trade off some pieces making it even harder for Gallardo to get wins.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Speaking of good stuff, this young Dodger lefty has electric pitches. He's 9-4 with 128 K's and a 2.96 ERA. Does a nice job of working out of jams - 50 BB - but makes it tough on himself by issuing so many slow trots.

Jaime Garcia (STL)

Another good young arm is the 24-year old Mexican rookie pitching for the Cardinals. His 2.17 ERA is second-best on the senior circuit. He's 8-4 and has fanned 80 hitters. Durability has been his weakness so far since Garcia has yet to throw more than seven innings in a start this season, although he has gone six or more in all but four games and has recorded a quality start each time he has done so.

Tim Lincecum (SFG)

The two-time reigning NL Cy Young winner started 2010 looking like the same pitcher that dominated the league for the past two seasons before control problems sent him into trouble. But he's regained his prowess and owns a respectable 3.26 ERA. For the third year in a row he leads the NL in strikeouts and he's 9-4. His 1.28 WHIP is inflated due to 48 BB. A strong second-half from the Freak could put Timmy right back in the middle of this conversation.

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