Friday, July 9, 2010

NL Cy Young Update: Jimenez has the W's, but that's it

Ubaldo Jimenez has had a fantastic season. He looked fabulous again today in shutting down St. Louis and was on a record-breaking pace until recently. But a few hiccups in late June and early July have opened the door for a slew of serious contenders.

One look at U can't hit what U can't see's numbers and the data is shocking.

15-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 113 K's. Nobody's won more than 27 games in the National League in nearly 60 years. Last season's Cy Young winner won 15 games all season.

But let me say it again. Last year's Cy Young winner won only 15 games.

In an age of Sabremetrics and stat geeks simply winning games won't do it. Adam Wainwright was a bullpen meltdown away from being a 20-game winner with a bunch of other gaudy numbers and he came up short in 2009.

For Ubaldo, a 25-win season, a no-hitter, 200 K's and an ERA in the low two's may be too much for anyone else to overcome. Hell, Jimenez could wind up winning the pitching triple crown (wins, ERA and strikeouts) but there are plenty of pitchers with numbers just as impressive or better than Jimenez in other categories not including record.

Let's round out the rest of the top-10 with just a few days left until the All-Star break.

LURKING

Josh Johnson (FLA)

After eight shutout innings Wednesday night in LA, Johnson's numbers are top-to-bottom the best in baseball. He sports a tidy 1.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 123 K's against just 28 walks. His record is 9-3. He leads all NL starters in every possible metric including WAR where he tops the list at 5.0. If I had to vote right now he would be my pick.

Adam Wainwright (STL)

A brilliant 2009 behind him, nothing has changed for Wainwright in the new decade. A 2.24 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, 123 K's and 32 BB with a 12-5 record. Not a lot of drop off there or from the rest of the candidates. He's gone at least six innings in every start but one and hasn't given up more than four earned runs in an appearance.

Roy Halladay (PHI)

Like Jimenez, a few rough starts have skewed some otherwise downright numbers for ol' Roy but the sum totals are still pretty fantastic. 2.33 ERA a 1.08 WHIP and 119 K's with only 18 free passes in as many starts. Doc is just 10-7 but has seven complete games and three shutouts (both the most in the NL). The Philly bats have been uncharacteristically quiet for long stretches in the early going and Halladay's record has suffered. His 4.3 WAR is tied for second in the league with Jimenez.

Mat Latos (SDP)

Certainly the surprise of the first-half, Latos has been downright brilliant for the Padres thus far. Latos boasts a 2.45 ERA with just a 0.97 WHIP. He's struck out 99 and walked just 28. He's 10-4 for the NL-West leading Daddies. His hits allowed per nine innings pitched is the second lowest behind Jimenez.

FOUR MORE TO WATCH FOR

Yovani Gallardo (MIL)

Flithy stuff, but just landed on the DL. Should be back after the break. 2.58 ERA and 128 K's. High WHIP (1.26) because of so many walks (48). 8-4 for a Milwaukee team that is really struggling and may trade off some pieces making it even harder for Gallardo to get wins.

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Speaking of good stuff, this young Dodger lefty has electric pitches. He's 9-4 with 128 K's and a 2.96 ERA. Does a nice job of working out of jams - 50 BB - but makes it tough on himself by issuing so many slow trots.

Jaime Garcia (STL)

Another good young arm is the 24-year old Mexican rookie pitching for the Cardinals. His 2.17 ERA is second-best on the senior circuit. He's 8-4 and has fanned 80 hitters. Durability has been his weakness so far since Garcia has yet to throw more than seven innings in a start this season, although he has gone six or more in all but four games and has recorded a quality start each time he has done so.

Tim Lincecum (SFG)

The two-time reigning NL Cy Young winner started 2010 looking like the same pitcher that dominated the league for the past two seasons before control problems sent him into trouble. But he's regained his prowess and owns a respectable 3.26 ERA. For the third year in a row he leads the NL in strikeouts and he's 9-4. His 1.28 WHIP is inflated due to 48 BB. A strong second-half from the Freak could put Timmy right back in the middle of this conversation.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

AL MVP Race

July is upon us and the Midsummer Classic is just around the corner. With that in mind I thought it wasn't too early to start the AL MVP debate. While this award can certainly be won (or lost) in September when a player can swing the tide of the playoff race the groundwork for a complete resume is being laid now.

In the conversation
(AKA The 12 HR, 53 RBI guys)

10. Torii Hunter (LAA) - Despite losing bopper Kendry Morales to injury the Angels are once again in the thick of the AL West race and Hunter's calm and steady presence in the clubhouse, line-up and centerfield are a big part of that. Spiderman has won nine straight gold gloves and he leads the league in doubles (24).

9. Evan Longoria (TAM) - Longo is developing into a leader in his third season in Tampa and heads a good Rays club that is scrapping to stay with the surging Red Sox and loaded Yankees. Has a 3.2 WAR and plays a gold-glove hot corner behind the AL's best staff.

8. Adrian Beltre (BOS) - Brought to Boston to shore up the Sox infield defensively not only has Beltre put up good power numbers reminiscent of his Dodger days but he is also tied for second in the league with a whopping .349 batting average.

On the outside looking in

7. Kevin Youkilis (BOS) - Youk is a run-producing machine. He's scored a league-high 62 times and driven in 50. The first baseman leads the AL with 49 walks and his .416 OBP is second-best.

6. Paul Konerko (CHW) - Konerko is tied for the league-lead with 20 homer's and his 56 RBI's are fourth best. His White Sox are red-hot and in the middle of a heated AL central race.

5. Justin Morneau (MIN) - Has an MVP award on his mantle already, carrying a Minnesota offense that is dealing with down years from most of it's other big bats like Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel. His 5.1 WAR, .446 OBP and 1.063 OPS leads the league.

Leading the pack

4. Robinson Cano (NYY) - Leads the league with a .354 average and has been hitting for power, too (16 HR's and 54 RBI). Second in WAR (4.6) has just one error (.997 fielding percentage) and like Morneau, making up for sub-par years from A-Rod and Teixiera. 

3-2. Vladimir Guerrero/Josh Hamilton (TEX)
Vlad the Impaler has always hit well in Arlington (.385 career clip, .374 in 2010) so the move to the Rangers seemed like a smart one. But coming off an injury plagued 2009 campaign that limited him to 100 games. It seemed like Guerrero, the 2004 AL MVP, was certainly on the downward arc of his brilliant career.

That assumption - and the reality then when healthy he is still a force - has been hammered home to his old mates the last couple of nights. Last night Vlad hit a go-ahead grand slam in a 4-for-4, two bomb performance and is 68 RBI tie him for the league lead. He has 18 dingers and a .339 average. The big knock against him will be that he is primarily used as a DH.

Hamilton, like Vlad, had a DL-laden 2009 season. On the heels of his unbelievable comeback and breakout 2008, he too was a question mark. But Hamilton has exploded once again. The splits are eye-popping, .343/18/58, and he currently boasts the longest hitting streak in the bigs this year (23 games). He leads the AL in total bases and has yet to ground into a double play.

1. Miguel Cabrera (DET)
After his drunken incident in the midst of the biggest series of the season and the collapse that followed, Cabrera was on thin ice. And for about .23 seconds the Tigers thought about shipping him out of town. But after getting sober and re-focusing Miggy is once again doing what he's always done, flat-out rake.

Cabrera is tied for the AL lead in homers and RBI's and sports a lofty .337 average making him a dangerous threat for the triple crown. His .628 slugging percentage is tops in the league and he's second in runs scored and total bases.

But it's his meltdown at the end of last season and his subsequent gut check that has got him here and he's really put the Tigers on his back in 2010. Barring a triple crown feat, Detroit needs to make the playoffs for Tubbs to hold off some strong competition, but if they do edge out Minnesota and Chicago then Cabrera has the inside track to his first MVP trophy later this year.