Friday, May 15, 2009

Where has all the power gone?

The has-beens a.k.a. the former users

Here is David Ortiz's stat line from yesterday: 0-7, 3 K's, 12 LOB

For the season? A .208 average and ZERO homers.

I sat six rows behind home plate at Angel stadium Wednesday night for the Angels/Red Sox game and despite having no rooting interest I screamed things like "JUICE" and "when are you getting your 50 games?" and "infield power" at Ortiz all night.  

Here is a guy that averaged 47 homers over a three year stretch and now he can't even hit one and its mid-May. He may never test positive, lord knows he is off the stuff now but for every mysterious injury there is a syringe and for every magical big papi moment there is to me at least a little extra something that fueled it.

Maybe I'm just cynical at this point but I don't trust anyone and when I see how far this guy has fallen the reasons just seem obvious.

But he's not the only one, let's look at few others...

How about Andruw Jones or Brian Giles or Derrek Lee? Guys that were roided out of their minds and now just hit doubles. Guys with precipitous spikes in their average numbers who get injured and can no longer hit for power.  

As a fan of the game they make me sick. I'd like to just see them thrown out. It's not like we don't know what you did. Every time you come to the box as a shadow of your former self you remind us of how you cheated the game.

Injuries, age, and decline in skills - these things happen but not to this extreme.

But let's look at the numbers for the proof since the tests haven't showed it:

D. Lee - 2005 - .335, 120 Runs, 199 hits, 50 doubles, 46 HR's, 107 RBI's

Career year? Sure, but look closer. He plays only 50 games the next year. Steroids dramatically increase the chance for injury. His career average is .281 and he has had one other season over .300 and never hit higher than 32 home runs in a season.

B. Giles - 1999-2002 - 149 HR's, 436 RBI's .605 SLG %

Giles has been in the league since 1995 and has just 286 career homers. The year after that 4-year binge ended he had just 20 bombs. In the last 4+ years he has 55 homers TOTAL. Say all you want about Petco Park, I have looked at the home/away splits, Giles has just lost all his power and he's not banging them out of opposing teams parks either.

This year he may be even worse than Papi (although older at 38). He his hitting .169 with six extra base hits in 130 at-bats (1 HR) and he's slugging .231.

Andruw Jones - 2005-2006 - 92 HR's, 257 RBI's.

Just 26 homers the next year. Puts on a ton of weight, his average plummets and he signs a big contract in L.A. Hits 3 homers in 209 AB's and slugs .249 before injury forces him to miss the rest of the season.

Couple of others to consider with awful starts to 2009....

Bobby Abreu - 2009 - Six extra base hits in 121 AB's (No Home Runs).

Remarkably durable but just 51 homers in the last 3+ seasons. Never hit less than 20 in seven seasons from 1999-2005. Only 43 in more than 1400 AB's as a lefty hitting in old Yankee Stadium.

Magglio Ordonez - 2009 - Four extra base hits in 121 AB's (2 HR), slugging .306.

Great start to his career misses 210 games in 2004-2005. Has a monster 2007 (.363, 28 HR's, 138 RBI's).

While the ex-steroid users try to hang on to their tattered careers this is not a new phenomenon. Many ex-players have huge spikes as well. Let's look at a couple of years past for some examples.

In 2001 two guys stand out. First is Bret Boone (.331, 37 HR, 141 RBI) His 162 game average (.266, 23 HR, 93 RBI) and those averages include that year and another big one in 2003. Or Luis Gonzales who hit 57 home runs that year and drove in 142. His 162 game averages were 22 HR and 90 RBI. The only other time he even got to the 30-HR plateau was the year before when he hit 31.

How about 1996 when Brady Anderson hit 50 homers and drove in 110. His 162 game averages? 19 and 67. That was also the year Ken Caminiti won the NL MVP. He later admitted taking steroids.

The list could go on and on, but for baseball's sake I hope the list of current players with stat lines that resemble Richter Scale-esque spikes continues to get smaller until the playing field is much more balanced and the sanctity of the game can be restored.