Thursday, August 4, 2011

Weaver, Boras, Moreno and impending free agency

Jered Weaver is leading a hotly-contested AL Cy Young race with inside of two months to go.

Last year he led the league in strikeouts. He is 28. He is having a career year.

In the offseason he actually lost his arbitration case. He wanted $8.8 million. He got $7.36 million instead. Somebody dropped the ball.

He will not pitch for less than $10 million for the forseeable future. He won't pitch for less than $20 million, starting next year.

How long that lasts falls on the shrewd shoulders of super-agent Scott Boras.

The Angels may have been able to negotiate a long-term deal with Weaver six months ago. Something in the range of four years and $70 million.

Now nothing under nine numbers will do.

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Scott Boras will not go quietly into the night now. Not armed with back-to-back top-5 Cy Young finishes, or repeat All Star appearances, or 400-plus K's over those two years.

He wants to get Weaver to free agency. He will drive up the dollars. A bidding war will ensue.

The Bombers need pitching. Even if Sabathia opts out he will be back. The Super Nova and Phil Hughes may be mainstays but by Thanksgiving next year Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon will be footnotes.

They missed on Cliff Lee. They don't miss often.

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They didn't whiff on Mark Teixeria and there's no hiding how much of an impetus that may be for the current impasse. A Boras client the Angels wanted to retain, owner Arte Moreno makes no qualms about his feelings for Boras.

He won't negotiate with him. He moved him from his suite behind home plate so he wouldn't have to see him on TV. He can't avoid him now. Or at least his people can't.

What he is staring down the barrel of now is Barry Zito money.

At 30, Weaver's age next offseason, Boras will certainly try to leverage the extra years for his client. This will be his one big deal.

Jered has started 28 games or more each of the last four seasons. His ERA has dropped, too.

The Yankees aren't the only team that need - or would pony up for - his arm.

The Red Sox are always in the mix, too. Beckett and Lester are great but questions linger after that. The Cubs have money. The Nationals are starting to spend with the big boys and slotting Weaver ahead of Zimmerman and Strasburg has to scare the hell out of Philly and Atlanta.

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Luck and misfortune go hand-in-hand.

The Boras pendulum swings both ways, and the Angels organization is laying in this bed by choice.

After a standout career at Long Beach State, Weaver and Boras scared 11 teams picking ahead of Anaheim in 2004. He fell into their laps. He shouldn't have been on the board but he was - buyer beware.

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So where does that leave Weaver? In a perfect place as long as his bank account is concerned. At 30 he will be smack dab in the middle of his prime.

Pitchers are a precious commodity. They are never a sure thing but organization's have no choice but to hope they stay viable.

So what does the market look like?

In my estimation the floor starts at five years and $100 million. It skyrockets from there.

Somebody will offer six years. The seventh year will be the deal breaker.

Six years and $140 million? Seven and $150? These are astronomical figures, but aces in their prime get paid, plain and simple.

The window for the Angels was open but it's closing fast. I think it's shut until next fall.

Then it's game on. Let the bidding begin.