Thursday, October 8, 2009

Sizing up the NFC after 4 weeks

At first glance the NFC playoff picture looks pretty clear. Then again there are three months left until the postseason begins so let's take a look at where this thing is headed.

NFC East

This division almost always gets two teams in and 2009-2010 seems no different.

The Giants are cruising right along at 4-0 although Eli Manning's injury is a huge concern. We knew they could run the ball and play defense but Smith and Manningham have emerged as tremendous threats in the passing game to fill the void left by Plaxico Burress.

The Eagles are 2-1 and despite early season injury issues of their own look like the second best team in this foursome. The defense is still strong and the offense is loaded with weapons.

The drama in Dallas seems to be a round-the-clock thing and at 2-2 the Cowboys seem destined for mediocrity again in the form of 8-9 wins. This team is just way too inconsistent.

The Redskins are also 2-2 but that includes close wins over the lowly Rams and Bucs and a loss to the Lions. Washington gets Carolina and Kansas City the next two weeks, completing what may be the easiest five-game stretch in league history (opponents are 1-18 on the year, with that one win being that loss to the Lions). It's all downhill after that.

NFC North

The Brett Favre led Minnesota Vikings are 4-0. The cagey veteran has burned opposing defenses intent on shutting down Adrian Peterson and the combination of that defense and the deafening noise of the Metrodome makes them a scary team in the playoffs if they get a low seed.

The Chicago Bears are 3-1 despite the loss of LB Brian Urlacher. Jay Cutler has settled down after a rough debut and there are some speedsters on offense and special teams that are game-changers. Looks like a 10-win team.

The Green Bay Packers have a lot of holes on that offensive line and it's hard to imagine them winning consistently if Aaron Rodgers has to run for his life on every snap. They are far from out of it at 2-2 but nine wins really seems like the ceiling for this squad.

The Detroit Lions finally found their way into the win column in week three. They can move the ball on offense and are definitely playing better but they are at least another year away from being relevant again.

NFC South

The New Orleans Saints sit atop the division at 4-0. Drew Brees and the offense can score 30 on anybody and the defense has been a very pleasant surprise. This team looks really dangerous and complete.

The Atlanta Falcons are just 2-1 after a bye week. They have a lot of weapons on offense and found their way into the postseason last year. The jury is still out on this year's team after a suspect performance last time out in New England.

The Carolina Panthers simply haven't recovered after their shocking loss to Arizona in last year's playoffs. They are 0-3 and despite plenty of talented players it's hard to imagine Jake Delhomme righting the ship or the Panthers eclipsing seven wins.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-4 and there's not a lot to like about them this year. Cadillac Williams is not a one-man wrecking crew and the QB situation is always a mess. Tough second-half schedule for the Bucs who won't win more than three-four games.

NFC West

The San Francisco 49ers are 3-1 and could easily be 4-0. The schedule gets tougher after the bye and they need a more consistent running attack to offset their paltry offense but the defense has quickly established themselves as one of the best in the league and this team should win 10 games.

The Arizona Cardinals are 1-2 after winning the NFC last season. The offense still has plenty of big-play potential but so far the redbirds just seem out of sync. Arizona could still get to 10 wins based on an advantageous schedule.

Expectations for a bounce-back season were high in Seattle but an injury to Matt Hasselback has put the Seahawks at 1-3. This team still has an excellent home-field advantage but it may be too little too late if they don't get it going soon. Marking them down for six victories.

The St. Louis Rams haven't won in their last 15 games and have been shut out twice already. At 0-4 the question of their first win might be more of an "if" then a "when." Injuries haven't helped, but Steven Jackson can't do it on his own.

****

Where they stand

1a. New York Giants (4-0)
1b. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
1c. New Orleans Saints (4-0)
4. San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

5. Chicago Bears (3-1)
6a. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
6b. Atlanta Falcons (2-1)

On the outside looking in

Green Bay Packers (2-2)
Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Washington Redskins (2-2)
Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

Not gonna happen

Seattle Seahawks (1-3)
Detroit Lions (1-3)
Carolina Panthers (0-3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)
St. Louis Rams (0-4)

****

How they'll finish

1. New Orleans (13-3)
2. New York (12-4)
3. Minnesota (12-4)
4. San Francisco (10-6)
5. Philadelphia (10-6)
6. Chicago (10-6)

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