Monday, October 20, 2008

World Series Breakdown

The case for Philadelphia....

The Philadelphia Phillies caught and passed the New York Mets for the second year in a row en route to the NL East crown. This time around they are making the most of their playoff appearance. 

With the hopes of an entire championship-starved city on their shoulders, the Phillies look to bring a title home to the City of Brotherly Love for the first time in a quarter century. Here's how they will make that dream a reality.

Cole Hamels  - The NLCS MVP has been unhittable this postseason. With a 3-0 record and 1.23 ERA in the playoffs, he has clearly been the Phillies ace.

He has 22 strikeouts in as many innings and is the one guy who can win this series almost single-handedly. The San Diego native will start Game 1 and could make two more starts if the series goes the full seven games. 

While the rest of the rotation behind him and Brett Myers are unreliable if Hamels can keep the Rays at bay with his breathtaking change-up he could set-up the Phillies to only need one win when he is not on the bump.

The big bats - The powerful lineup that propelled the Phillies all season has yet to really break out. A World Series 
championship could be theirs if they finally do. 

Behind Long Beach Poly and UCLA grad Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell loom. The trio belted 114 homers during the regular season but has just four - three from Burrell and one from Utley - through the first two rounds. 

Howard, the 2006 NL MVP and leading candidate for the award again after a torrid September, is streaky. If he can get hot again, the Rays will be in trouble. 

At the top of the lineup, the reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino set the table for the sluggers behind them. If both speedsters can get on and wreak havoc on the basepaths, the Phillies can put up a ton of runs - especially at home in Citizens Bank Park.

The bullpen - One thing you need to win in October, or even early November, is a great bullpen. Closer Brad Lidge is perfect 46-for-46 in converting save opportunities this season.

Long Beach native Ryan Madson has given up just one run in nine innings of work and the Phillies haven't blown a lead after eight innings all year, with a record of 86-0 headed to the final frame on top. With Madson's emergence they are lights out after seven innings. 

On the other side of the field Tampa's David Price has only been in the big leagues a month and Grant Balfour has a shaky psyche. The Rays lack a proven closer and that should be a big key. 

If Hamels and Myers can get the ball to Madson and Lidge with a lead the duo can shut the door and get Philadelphia a win. That will be the recipe for success.

Prediction: Phillies in 7



The case for Tampa Bay...

Tampa Bay Rays rookie third baseman Evan Longoria was still in disbelief after defeating the Boston Red Sox to advance to the World Series.

“I’m sure nobody picked us to go to the World Series,” the former Long Beach State Dirtbag said after Sunday’s 3-1 win in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. “For me to be in this situation, I really can’t believe it.”

He’s right — nobody picked them to play in the Fall Classic at the beginning of the season. The team started the season as an 80-to-1 longshot to win the World Series, and the franchise hadn’t made the playoffs in its previous 10 years of existence.

But, I’m giving them a shot to win it all.

Youth trumps experience - Everyone can stop saying that the Rays are too inexperienced to perform in the postseason.

How about this for experience? Manager Joe Maddon was on the coaching staff when the team formerly known as the Anaheim Angels won the World Series in 2002.

Maddon has done an excellent job guiding the young, talented Rays to the AL East title, AL pennant, and now, a shot at the big prize.

Longoria and center fielder B.J. Upton — 23 and 24 years old, respectively — have powered the offense in the middle of the lineup, combining to hit 13 home runs in the postseason.

There’s also that unknown fireballer who emerged from the bullpen in Game 7 …

Price is right for Tampa Bay - David Price was thrust into the national spotlight Sunday night and responded well.

The former No. 1 overall draft pick was called up in September and appeared in just five regular season games. But, Price struck out J.D. Drew with the bases loaded to end the eighth inning and preserve the 3-1 lead. 

The rookie left-hander continued to baffle Boston in the ninth, fanning Mark Kotsay and Jason Varitek before inducing the series-ending grounder to eliminate the defending champions.

With questions swirling about Tampa Bay’s arms in the bullpen — particularly the closer role — Maddon should think back to an electric Francisco Rodriguez mowing through lineups in the Angels’ 2002 run.

Price can dart the outside corner with a 97 mph fastball or jelly-leg batters with an 88 mph slider, and hitters can’t hit what they can’t see. As the least experienced member of the Rays, Price surely hasn’t been seen by any of the Philadelphia Phillies’ hitters.

Depth in the starting rotation - Cole Hamels and Brett Myers have delivered for Philadelphia, combining to win five of the team’s seven postseason games to reach the World Series.

There really isn’t much beyond the Phillies’ No. 1 and 2 starters, however.

In two postseason starts, 45-year-old Jamie Moyer is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in just 5 1/3 innings. It’s a struggle for him just to hit 88 mph on the radar gun with his fastball, and the Tampa Bay lineup is more than capable of turning the game into a home run derby.

In Game 4 of the ALCS against Boston knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, the Rays scored five runs on six hits — three homers — in just 2 2/3 innings.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will throw four quality starters: ALCS MVP Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Scott Kazmir and James Shields.

Prediction: Rays in six

(Cole Hamels and Evan Longoria, Photos Courtesy of MLB.com)

No comments: